The Rise and Decline of the Axis of Resistance: Iran’s Struggle for Regional Dominance in the Middle East

Abstract

This paper examines the evolution of the Axis of Resistance, an informal political-military alliance formed and led by the Islamic Republic of Iran, in the first quarter of the 21st century. Uniting Shi’ite Islamist movements, Sunni Islamist Palestinian nationalist militant groups, and until its collapse in 2024, the Assad-led Syrian government, this bloc of state and non-state actors has been intent upon countering the U.S., Israeli and Sunni Arab, Saudi in particular, influence in the Middle East. The Axis was and remains a critical driving force behind a profound transformation of the international security landscape, serving as a cornerstone of Iran’s grand strategy in the region. The study analyzes the progressive rise of the Axis in the first two decades of the 21st century, capitalizing on the 2003 invasion of Iraq and the Arab Spring. Filling the power vacuums left by other actors, Iran managed to expand its regional influence at the cost of its rivals: the United States, Israel, Arab monarchies of the Gulf, and Turkey. The Axis played a pivotal role in combating Salafi jihadist groups like the so-called Islamic State and al-Qaeda, simultaneously securing the bloc’s interests and bolstering its legitimacy as a security provider. However, the assassination of General Qasem Soleimani in 2020 and events triggered by the 7 October 2023 Hamas-led attack on Israel substantially weakened the alliance’s strength and damaged its prestige. The paper argues that while the Axis of Resistance represents a unique network boasting asymmetric warfare capabilities, ideological resilience and unorthodox command structures – employing a long-term strategy of tension and attrition – it has become increasingly vulnerable. Resource strain, escalating counterpressure, emerging leadership crises, and new developments on the international stage all contribute to reshaping regional power dynamics and growing questions about the future of Iran’s foreign policy.