Unraveling the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict: Geopolitical Dynamics, Religious Tensions

Habib Badawi

Аннотация


This study delves into the multifaceted dynamics of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, exploring its origins, geopolitical underpinnings, military implications, and global ramifications. Utilizing a comprehensive analysis of scholarly articles, governmental treaties, news reports, and military strength rankings, the research outlines the interplay between geopolitical interests, historical ties, religious affiliations, and military strategies that have shaped the conflict's trajectory. The methodology encompasses an extensive review of primary and secondary sources to elucidate the complex nature of the conflict, aiming to provide a holistic understanding of the crisis. The study highlights the significance of nuclear disarmament treaties, religious tensions, military capabilities, and international alliances in shaping the ongoing war and its broader implications.

This academic study aims to comprehensively analyze the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, investigating historical events, geopolitical factors, and military dynamics. The study endeavors to provide a multifaceted understanding of this complex issue and contribute valuable insights for policymakers, scholars, and practitioners involved in navigating and resolving the crisis.

Research Questions:

-          Why did Ukraine relinquish its nuclear arsenal in the Budapest Treaty of 1994?

-          What were the religious underpinnings influencing the Russian-Ukrainian confrontation?

-          How did geopolitical factors contribute to the lead-up to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?

-          What were the indicators of Russian determination to employ military force against Ukraine?

-          What are the ongoing dynamics and implications of the war of attrition in Ukraine?

Hypotheses/Theses:

Hypothesis 1: Ukraine's decision to abandon its nuclear arsenal under the Budapest Treaty was influenced by assurances of territorial sovereignty, despite underlying skepticism about enforceability.

Thesis 1: Religious identities, particularly Orthodox Christianity, have historically shaped and influenced the confrontational dynamics between Russia and Ukraine.

Thesis 2: Geopolitical pressures and strategic interests, both regional and global, significantly contributed to the prelude to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Hypothesis 2: Indicators such as military build-up, diplomatic maneuverings, and geopolitical motivations signaled Russia's intent to escalate the conflict against Ukraine.

Thesis 3: The ongoing war of attrition in Ukraine involves asymmetrical warfare, humanitarian challenges, and extensive regional and global implications, impacting the course of the conflict.

These hypotheses and theses guide the study's exploration of the multifaceted nature of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, aiming to provide comprehensive insights into its historical, geopolitical, and military dimensions.


Ключевые слова


Russian-Ukrainian conflict, geopolitics, nuclear disarmament, military strategy, religious tensions, international alliances, global implications, Budapest Treaty

Полный текст:

PDF (English)

Литература


Documents:

Memorandum of Security Assurances in Connection with the Republic of Belarus Accession to the Treaty on Non-Proliferation of nuclear weapons

Budapest, (1994, December 5). United Nations Treaty Collection. https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume%203007/Part/volume-3007-I-52241.pdf

Books:

Plokhy, S. (2021). Nuclear folly: A new history of the Cuban missile crisis. London: Penguin.

Online Sources:

Global Firepower (2022). Russia Military Strength. 2022 World Military Strength Rankings. https://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.php?country_id=russia

Global Firepower (2022). Ukraine Military Strength. 2022 World Military Strength Rankings. https://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.php?country_id=Ukraine

Hooper Craig (2022, March 8). Ukraine’s use of stinger and javelin missiles is outstripping U.S. production. Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/sites/craighooper/2022/03/08/ukraines-use-of-stinger-and-javelin-missiles-is-outstripping-us-production/

Gatehouse Jonathon, Leung Albert (2022, February 25). Ukraine has will, but Russia has might: How their military forces match up. CBC. https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-russia-military-comparison-1.6365115

Wingrove Josh (2022, March 11). Bloomberg. Biden Says He’d Fight World War III for NATO But Not for Ukraine. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-11/biden-says-he-d-fight-world-war-iii-for-nato-but-not-for-ukraine

Bronk Justin (2022, February 28). The mysterious case of the missing Russian Air Force. Royal United Services Institute. https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/mysterious-case-missing-russian-air-force/

Ling Justin (2022, February 26). Russia tries to terrorize Ukraine with images of Chechen soldiers. Foreign Policy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/02/26/russia-chechen-propaganda-ukraine/

Sly Liz, Lamothe Dan (2022, February 28). The war in Ukraine isn't working out the way Russia intended. Boston.com. https://www.boston.com/news/world-news/2022/02/28/the-war-in-ukraine-isnt-working-out-the-way-russia-intended/

Budjeryn Mariana (2018, April 19). Denuclearization again? Lessons from Ukraine's decision to disarm. Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/denuclearization-again-lessons-ukraines-decision-disarm

Sofuoglu Murat (2022, March 7). Is the Russian army achieving its strategic goals in the Ukraine war? trtworld. https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/is-the-russian-army-achieving-its-strategic-goals-in-the-ukraine-war-55328

Reynolds Nick, Watling Jack (2022, February 25). Ukraine through Russia’s eyes. Royal United Services Institute. https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/ukraine-through-russias-eyes/

Pifer Steven (2014, December 4). The Budapest memorandum and U.S. obligations. Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2014/12/04/the-budapest-memorandum-and-u-s-obligations/

Rumer Eugene (2019, June 5). The Primakov (Not Gerasimov) doctrine in action. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/06/05/primakov-not-gerasimov-doctrine-in-action-pub-79254

Michel Yohann (2022, April 22). War in Ukraine, where quantity as well as quality matters. IISS. https://www.iiss.org/blogs/military-balance/2022/04/war-in-ukraine-where-quantity-as-well-as-quality-matters

Forrest Brett, Malsin Jared (2022, February 26). Ukraine says it used Turkish-made drones to hit Russian targets. Wall Street Journal. https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-02-26/card/ukraine-says-it-uses-turkish-made-drones-to-hit-russian-targets-DrigGO7vkGfDzbBuncnA

Mrachek Alexis (2019, February 22). How Putin Uses Russian Orthodoxy to Grow His Empire. https://www.heritage.org/europe/commentary/how-putin-uses-russian-orthodoxy-grow-his-empire

News Articles:

Mahshie Abraham (2022, March 8). Ukrainian resistance, logistics challenges slow Russian momentum. Air Force Magazine. https://www.airforcemag.com/pentagon-ukraine-resists-russian-momentum-slows-but-kyiv-siege-continues/

Becky Sullivan (2022, March 11). Why Belarus is so involved in Russia's invasion of Ukraine. NPR.org. https://www.npr.org/2022/03/11/1085548867/belarus-ukraine-russia-invasion-lukashenko-putin

Dillon Douglas (2012, August). What happened to the Soviet superpower’s nuclear Arsenal? Clues for the nuclear security summit. Harvard Kennedy School. https://www.hks.harvard.edu/publications/what-happened-soviet-superpowers-nuclear-arsenal-clues-nuclear-security-summit

Principles of the Orthodox Faith (2011, December 29). Orthodox Heritage. https://www.orthodoxlegacy.org/?p=471

WSJ (2022, February 26). Ukraine says it used Turkish-made drones to hit Russian targets. Wall Street Journal. https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-02-26/card/ukraine-says-it-uses-turkish-made-drones-to-hit-russian-targets-DrigGO7vkGfDzbBuncnA




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.17951/we.2023.9.2.11-27
Date of publication: 2024-05-05 19:50:15
Date of submission: 2023-07-01 03:29:50


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