Prospects for Post-Conflict (De)Stabilisation of Libya

Abstract

During the Arab Spring some MENA regimes were either forced to reform themselves or ousted and replaced by democratic opposition. Amidst half a dozen of cases of this revolution Libya is a specific one. Its Qaddafi era idiosyncrasy fuelled by “oil” state-formation ended up with the destruction of state apparatus and reinvigorated tribal affiliations. The impact of the 2011 events has changed it as a polity but cannot erase the past five decades of neo-patrimonial and repressive rule. Subsequently, the end of the Muammar Qaddafi regime does not promise post-conflict stability as a new Libya has yet to validate its move towards stabilisation or work out a national consensus. This paper identifies three possibilities of the future development of this country (gradual stabilisation, Jihadisation and fragmentation) and considers the likelihood of each in characteristics and the international context.