Analysis of Determinants of Corporate Income Tax Revenues in Poland

Adam Adamczyk, Sławomir Franek

Abstract



Theoretical background: The literature highlights the dynamic nature of corporate income tax (CIT), which undergoes frequent changes. Recent trends include efforts to minimize its adverse economic effects through policies expanding the tax base while lowering tax rates. Additionally, growing international tax competition has prompted countries to introduce tax preferences, affecting the tax base and effective tax rate. This raises the question of how these trends influence CIT revenues in Poland. Answering this requires identifying the key determinants of CIT revenues.
Purpose of the article: This study aims to determine the factors influencing changes in CIT revenues in Poland. Two research questions are posed: 1) which factors have the most significant impact on changes in CIT revenues? 2) what role do large taxpayers (revenues > EUR 50 million) play in CIT revenues?
Research methods: The study considers factors such as the number of taxpayers, their average revenues, profitability, the relationship between the taxable base and income, and the effective CIT rate. The analysis covers the 2009–2022 period using data from the Polish Ministry of Finance. The logarithmic method was employed to evaluate the impact of individual factors on CIT revenue changes.
Main findings: Results indicate that the number of taxpayers is the primary driver of CIT revenue changes, consistently contributing to revenue growth. The second most important factor is firm size, measured by average revenue levels, although this factor shows greater variability. Profitability levels also positively influence CIT revenues. Significant differences in these factors were observed based on taxpayer size.


Keywords


corporate income tax; fiscal policy,; tax reforms

Full Text:

PDF

References


Auerbach, A.J., & Poterba, J.M. (1987). Why Have Corporate Tax Revenues Declined? [Working Paper]. National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w2118

Banociova, A., & Tahlova, S. (2019). European states in a bout of corporate tax competition. Journal of Competitiveness, 11(3), 19–34. https://doi.org/10.7441/joc.2019.03.02

Clausing, K.A. (2007). Corporate tax revenues in OECD countries. International Tax and Public Finance, 14(2), 115–133. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10797-006-7983-2

Cozmei, C. (2015). Is it any EU corporate income tax rate-revenue paradox? Procedia Economics and Finance, 23, 818–827. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(15)00372-X

Creedy, J., & Gemmell, N. (2008). Corporation tax buoyancy and revenue elasticity in the UK. Economic Modelling, 25(1), 24–37. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2007.04.007

Delgado, F.J., Fernández-Rodríguez, E., & Martínez-Arias, A. (2018). Corporation effective tax rates and company size: Evidence from Germany. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 31(1), 2081–2099. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2018.1543056

Devereux, M.P., Griffith, R., & Klemm, A. (2002). Corporate income tax reforms and international tax competition. Economic Policy, 17(35), 449–495. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0327.00094

Devereux, M.P., Griffith, R., & Klemm, A. (2004). Why has the UK corporation tax raised so much revenue? Fiscal Studies, 25(4), 367–388. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-5890.2004.tb00543.x

Devereux, M.P., Liu, L., & Loretz, S. (2014). The elasticity of corporate taxable income: New evidence from UK tax records. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 6(2), 19–53. https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.6.2.19

Douglas, A.V. (1990). Changes in corporate tax revenue. Canadian Tax Journal, 38, 66.

Dudine, P., & Jalles, J.T. (2018). How buoyant is the tax system? New evidence from a large heterogeneous panel. Journal of International Development, 30(6), 961–991. https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.3332

Dwenger, N., & Steiner, V. (2012). Profit taxation and the elasticity of the corporate income tax base: evidence from German corporate tax return data. National Tax Journal. (world). https://doi.org/10.1086/NTJ41791115

Eurostat. (2024). Tax revenue statistics. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Tax_revenue_statistics

van Ganzen, B. (2023). Determinants of top personal income tax rates in 19 OECD countries, 1981–2018. Journal of Public Policy, 43(3), 401–426. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0143814X23000028

Gordon, R.H., & Slemrod, J. (1998, May). Are “Real” Responses to Taxes Simply Income Shifting Between Corporate and Personal Tax Bases? [Working Paper]. National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w6576

Greoning, E., Zivanomoyo, J., & Tsaurai, K. (2019). Determinants of company tax revenue in Swaziland (1990–2015). Acta Universitatis Danubius: Œconomica, 15(5), 7–37.

Gruber, J., & Rauh, J. (2007). How elastic is the corporate income tax base? In A.J. Auerbach, J.R. Hines Jr., & J. Slemrod (Eds.), Taxing Corporate Income in the 21st Century (pp. 140–163). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511510823.011

Gupta, A.S. (2007). Determinants of Tax Revenue Effort in Developing Countries. IMF Working Paper WP/07/1184, Washington DC: IMF. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451867480.001

Helcmanovská, M., & Andrejovská, A. (2021). Tax rates and tax revenues in the context of tax competitiveness. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 14(7), 284. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14070284

Karpowicz, A. (2023a). Unstable government revenues in uncertain times: Which taxes are especially volatile? Ekonomia i Prawo. Economics and Law, 22(3), 555–577.

Karpowicz, A. (2023b). What impacts the value of revenues from taxation of income of corporations? Evidence from European Union Member States. Wroclaw Review of Law, Administration & Economics, 12(1), 30–53. https://doi.org/10.2478/wrlae-2022-0003

Kawano, L., & Slemrod, J. (2016). How do corporate tax bases change when corporate tax rates change? With implications for the tax rate elasticity of corporate tax revenues. International Tax and Public Finance, 23(3), 401–433. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10797-015-9375-y

Macek, R. (2015). The impact of taxation on economic growth: Case study of OECD countries. Review of Economic Perspectives, 14(4), 309–328. https://doi.org/10.1515/revecp-2015-0002

le Maire, D., & Schjerning, B. (2013). Tax bunching, income shifting and self-employment. Journal of Public Economics, 107, 1–18. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2013.08.002

de Mooij, R.A., & Nicodème, G. (2008). Corporate tax policy and incorporation in the EU. International Tax and Public Finance, 15(4), 478–498. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10797-008-9072-1

Nandi, B.K., Chaudhury, M., & Hasan, G.Q. (2014). Univariate Time Series Forecasting: A Study of Monthly Tax Revenue of Bangladesh. EWUCRT Working Paper No 9. East West University, Dhaka, Bangladesh. http://dspace.ewubd.edu/handle/2525/900

Nicodème, G., Caiumi, A., & Majewski, I. (2018, December 1). What Happened to CIT Collection? Solving the Rates-Revenues Puzzle [SSRN Scholarly Paper]. Social Science Research Network. https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=3302626

OECD. (2024).Corporate Tax Statistics 2024. OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/9c27d6e8-en

Riedl, A., & Rocha-Akis, S. (2012). How elastic are national corporate income tax bases in OECD countries? The role of domestic and foreign tax rates. Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue Canadienne d’économique, 45(2), 632–671. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5982.2012.01713.x

Robinson, Z., & De Beer, J. (2021). Revisiting corporate income tax determinants in Southern Africa. Development Southern Africa, 38(4), 564–579. https://doi.org/10.1080/0376835X.2020.1842175

Sørensen, P.B. (2007). Can capital income taxes survive? And should they? CESifo Economic Studies, 53(2), 172–228. https://doi.org/10.1093/cesifo/ifm010

Suárez Serrato, J.C., & Zidar, O. (2018). The structure of state corporate taxation and its impact on state tax revenues and economic activity. Journal of Public Economics, 167, 158–176. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2018.09.006




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.17951/h.2025.59.1.7-19
Date of publication: 2025-05-20 12:19:09
Date of submission: 2024-12-31 09:27:02


Statistics


Total abstract view - 0
Downloads (from 2020-06-17) - PDF - 0

Indicators



Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Copyright (c) 2025 Adam Adamczyk, Sławomir Franek

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.