A Century after the Publication of The Economic Consequences of the Peace. Considerations on the Challenges of the Global Geoeconomics in the Third Decade of the 21st Century

Priscila Palacio

Abstract


A hundred years after The Economic Consequences of the Peace (Keynes, 1919), this article proposes, on the one hand, to revisit some chapters of the work, emphasizing the premonitory character that it acquired when anticipating the fateful consequences that the imposition of peace under disadvantageous conditions for the vanquished would bring for the regional and global stability. On the other hand, even though there are many differences between the current situation and the first postwar period, the purpose of this work is not to carry out a comparative study but to extract from the rereading of Keynes’s work some contributions to understanding global geoeconomics at the dawn of the third decade of the 21st century. A brief analysis of the current world geoeconomic situation is presented, emphasizing recurrent international crises, the tripolar distribution of economic-military power, and the effects of the Russian-Ukrainian war. This study concludes that Keynes’ work is evidence that the geoeconomic decisions of the leaders of the great powers are fundamental to the maintenance of world stability.


Keywords


Keynes, global geoeconomics, tripolar world, economic-military power index

References


Ahir, H., Bloom, N. & Furceri, D. (2020). 60 años de incertidumbre. Finanzas y Desarrollo, marzo de 2020. Fondo Monetario Internacional. Recuperado de https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/spa/2020/03/pdf/fmi-lanza-indice-incertidumbre-mundial-wui-furceri.pdf

Babić et al. (2022). The Political Economy of Geoeconomics: Europe in a Changing World. International Political Economy Series. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. Recuperado de https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-01968-5_1

BBC News Mundo (2022/03/02). Rusia y Ucrania: la Asamblea General de la ONU aprueba una resolución de condena a la invasión rusa. Recuperado el 10 de diciembre 2022 de https://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias-internacional-60594995

Blackwill, R. D. & Harris, J. M. (2016). War by Other Means. Geoeconomics and Statecraft. Council on Foreign Relations. USA: The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press.

CEPAL (2023). Perspectivas del Comercio Internacional de América Latina y el Caribe 2022. Infografía. Recuperado de https://www.cepal.org

Chancel, L. et al. (2022). World Inequality Report 2022. World Inequality Lab.

CNN (2022/10/14). ¿Qué países poseen más armas nucleares? ¿Cuántas tiene Rusia? Datos y números. CNN en Español. Recuperado el 10 de diciembre 2022 de https://cnnespanol.cnn.com/2022/10/14/que-paises-tienen-mas-armas-nucleares-mundo-trax/

De Mateo y Sousa, E. (1993). De la geopolítica a la geoeconomía: una lectura del siglo XX. Comercio Exterior, vol. 43, no. 10, pp. 974–978. México: Cámara Nacional de la industria de la Transformación.

Dimand, R. W. (2019). One Hundred Years Ago: John Maynard Keynes’s The Economic Consequences of the Peace. History of Economics Review, vol.73(1), pp. 1–13. DOI: 10.1080/10370196.2019.1656080.

Fjäder, C., Helwig, N. & Wigell, M. (2021). Recognizing ‘Geoeconomic Risk’. Rethinking Corporate Risk Management for the Era of Great-Power Competition. FIIA Briefing Paper. Geoeconomics Series, no. 314. Helsinki: Finnish Institute of International Affairs.

Fuller, E. W. (December 11, 2019). The Economic Consequences of the Peace: 100 Years Later. Mises Institute. Recuperado de https://mises.org

Giordano, P. & Michalczewsky, K. (2022). El impacto comercial de la guerra en Ucrania en América Latina y el Caribe. Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo. Sector de Integración y Comercio. Resumen de políticas del BID N° 365.

Greenspan, A. (2008). La era de las turbulencias. Aventuras en un nuevo mundo. Trad. Gabriel Dolls Gallardo. Ediciones B.S.A., España (Título original: The Age of Turbulence).

International Monetary Fund. https://www.imf.org

Keynes, J. M. (2002 [1919]). The Economic Consequences of the Peace.

Kissinger, H. (2014). La diplomacia. Trad. Mónica Utrilla. Quinta reimpresión. México: Fondo de Cultura Económica (Título original: Diplomacy [1994]).

Olinga-Shannon, S., Barbesgaard, M. & Vervest, P. (2019). China y la Iniciativa de la Franja y la Ruta: Documento de trabajo. Trad. B. Martínez. Foro de los Pueblos Asia Europa (AEPF). Recuperado de www.aepf.info

Palacio, P. (2022). The Uncertainty of a Tripolar World: The Return of Militaristic Geopolitics and the Relevance of Geoeconomics in the First Decades of the 21st Century. A Brief Mention about the Russia-Ukraine Conflict. Global Journal of Human Social Sciences-Economics (GJHSS-E), vol. 22, issue 3, version 1.0, March 2022. USA: Open Association of Research Society. Recuperado de https://globaljournals.org/GJHSS_Volume22/2-The-Uncertainty.pdf

Palacio, P. (2019). Realismo y Cambio Internacional. Estudio sobre la obra de Robert Gilpin “War and Change” y su contemporaneidad en el siglo XXI. Una mirada a Estados Unidos, China y Rusia. Buenos Aires: Editorial Almaluz.

Waltz, K. (1979). Theory of International Politics. University of California, Berkeley. USA: Addison-Wesley Publishing Company.

World Economic Forum (2023). The Global Risks Report 2023. 18th Edition. Insight Report. Switzerland: World Economic Forum.

Wezeman, P. et al. (2022). Trends in International Arms Transfers, 2021. SIPRI Fact Sheet. Sweden: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

Wezeman, P. et al. (2021). Trends in International Arms Transfers, 2020. SIPRI Fact Sheet. Sweden: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

Wezeman, P. et al. (2020). Trends in International Arms Transfers, 2019. SIPRI Fact Sheet. Sweden: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

Wigell, M. & Scholvin, S. (April 2018). Geo-Economics as Concept and Practice in International Relations. Surveying the State of the Art. FIIA Working Paper, no. 102. Helsinki: Finnish Institute of International Affairs.

Wigell, M., Scholvin, S. & Aaltola, M. (2019). Geo-Economics and Power Politics in the 21st Century. 1st ed. Taylor and Francis.

World Trade Organization – WTO Stats. https://stats.wto.org




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.17951/al.2023.15.109-131
Date of publication: 2023-10-13 10:53:02
Date of submission: 2023-02-18 01:35:20


Statistics


Total abstract view - 472
Downloads (from 2020-06-17) - PDF (Español (España)) - 290

Indicators



Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Copyright (c) 2023 Priscila Palacio

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.